Russell Martin is headed for huge trouble if he does not fix alarming Rangers stat
Russell Martin has faced a difficult start to the season in charge of Rangers.
The Gers have drawn both of their opening fixtures of the Scottish Premiership, after scoring just once against both Motherwell and Dundee.
But it has been a different story in the Champions League qualifiers, with victory over Panathinaikos and Viktoria Plzen seeing them through to the final play-off round.
Rangers’ next game will take place on Saturday, 16 August, when they face Alloa Athletic in the first round of the Scottish League Cup.
Rangers are living life dangerously in defence
On paper, Rangers’ start to the season has not quite prompted massive cause for concern.
Results in the Champions League qualifying rounds have been positive, and it could be argued that Martin’s side have not enjoyed the rub of the green in the Scottish Premiership.
Motherwell’s equaliser came late on in the game, and the Gers did well to secure a point against Dundee after Nasser Djiga’s red card.
But the underlying stats tell a much different story, and one that will be concerning for Rangers staff and fans alike.
In four of their six games, Martin’s team have conceded more expected goals against (xGA) than they have registered expected goals (xG).
- Panathinaikos 1-1 Rangers – xG: 1.72 – 0.95
- Rangers 2-0 Panathinaikos – xG: 1.57 – 1.65
- Viktoria Plzen 2-1 Rangers – xG: 3.31 – 1.15
Each stat gives a number based on the number of goals a team would be expected to score based on the quality of the shots they have taken.
The most glaring example came against Motherwell, in which the home side registered 2.13 xG compared to Rangers’ 0.83.
| xG performance – Motherwell 1-1 Rangers | Home | Away |
| Expected goals | 2.13 | 0.83 |
| Expected goals from open play | 1.45 | 0.41 |
| Expected goals from set plays | 0.68 | 0.42 |
| Expected goals from shots on target | 1.11 | 0.55 |
That would suggest that the Gers were very lucky to walk away with a point, with a combination of Jack Butland’s performance and Motherwell’s poor finishing saving Martin’s blushes.
Perhaps such a stat would not indicate an issue if it were not becoming a consistent theme for Rangers.
And that is not to mention their own xG, which, whilst showing strong finishing from the likes of Djeidi Gassama, is not sustainable.
Sooner or later, the goals will start to become narrow misses, and Rangers simply do not create enough chances to weather that storm.
Rangers must improve to avoid calamity
Right now, the stats behind Rangers’ results are just that. At the end of the day, the final score is ultimately what matters.
But very quickly, such stats will have their influence on the score line too. A period of bad form for Butland, or a clinical shooting performance from the opposition, could turn into a nightmare for Martin.
Rangers cannot continue to ride their luck and must work to cut out their opponents’ chances before they become shots at all.
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